Scenarios and Forecasting: Planning for Uncertainty
November 14-15, 2024 | 8am-4:30pm | UT Campus or Live Online | $3,350
Course Details
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LEVERAGE SCENARIOS TO FOSTER INSIGHT
Utilizing the integrated approach taught in this program, prepare to create value for your organization by broadening strategic thinking about the future and creating robust strategies. Learn to select appropriate sources and methodology, design, and develop effective forecasts that improve your decisions. Build on data and analytics, and learn to incorporate better judgment systematically.
ENROLL IN THIS COURSE
Upcoming Sessions
Class Details
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What You'll Learn
Appropriate Sources and Methodology
Selecting the appropriate sources and methodology for forecasts is paramount to the success of your strategy. Systematic scenario planning can be an effective tool to improve the reliability of forecasts.
We define a “scenario” as a coherent sequence of events and decisions that create a vivid, compelling vision of what the future could look like. We define “scenario planning” as harnessing the power of scenarios to make better strategic choices. With the right tools you can design and develop effective forecasts that dramatically improve long-term decisions.
Making such decisions requires forward-looking information that is relevant and reliable. Only looking backward or ignoring uncertainty about the future will lead to flawed decisions. Effective forecasts will include both future possibilities (scenarios) and probabilities.
Strategic Decision-Making
- Improve strategic decision-making with enhanced forecasting methods and by leveraging scenarios to foster insight
- Examine and employ a four-step process of developing and using scenarios within a strategic decision-making process
Forecasting Models
- Discuss best practices for developing forecasting models, assessing quantitative information, and updating assessments with new information
- Identify, graphically, the primary factors to be considered in a forecasting model and the relationships among them utilizing a relevance diagram
- Parameterize the model by choosing formulas to represent projections in the model
Event Probabilities
- Recognize the ambiguity and confusion created when people use words such as “likely,” “good possibility,” etc. in forecasts, rather than explicit probabilities
- Learn to assess event probabilities by studying a company that has become extremely skilled at this process
- Apply a rigorous quantitative approach to situations with very low probabilities and high consequences
Attending this Course
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Individuals
This course is appropriate for those that want to make better decisions, and develop better processes for decision making within their team or across their organization. -
Teams
Organizations often send pairs or small teams, to support the launch of new initiatives. -
Requirements & Credit
There are no prerequisites for this course, but we recommend starting with our 'Decision Quality' class to learn the fundamentals. Participants earn 1.4 CEUs and/or 14 CPEs for this course, as well as a certificate of completion.
Looking for University Credit?
Our classes are available for university credit. Please contact Elizabeth Krieg for more information.
This course is terrific. Informative, well-organized; will provide a great foundation for helping teams make good decisions.
Demonstrate Your Expertise with a Certificate
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Reimbursement Options
Learn more about course credits and options for course reimbursement. Get tips on the best way to approach your manager and download a customizable template to facilitate making the ask.
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Course Location
In person courses take place at the AT&T Executive Education and Conference Center and adjoining Rowling Hall on the UT campus in Austin. These world-class facilities provide a comfortable and convenient learning environment, with direct access to the 40 acres of campus and within walking distance of downtown Austin. Live online and on-demand course options are available for many courses.
In Partnership with Strategic Decisions Group
The Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate courses offered by Texas Executive Education combine The University of Texas at Austin’s academic and research depth with the decision and risk management expertise and track record of Strategic Decisions Group (SDG).
Strategic Decisions Group (SDG) is a global consulting firm with expertise in strategic decision making, risk management and shareholder value creation. SDG’s collaborative approach helps clients find innovative strategies for today while helping them build decision competency for the future.
Earn a Badge
We offer digital badges for select courses, which enable you to verify your skills and achievements. When you complete this course, you will earn a digital badge that you can showcase on your LinkedIn profile.
Additional Courses
Decision and Risk Analysis
Explore the foundations of decision quality and how to use a rigorous analytic framework to make better decisions in your personal and professional life.
Decision Quality: Make the Right Choice Every Time
Learn how to frame strategic choices, generate alternatives, develop credible forecasts, quantify uncertainty and judge the quality of a decision at the time it is made.
Human Biases in Decision Making: Avoiding the Traps
Understand the ways in which your mind, personality, and social structures can degrade your decision-making.
Leading Strategic Decision Making
Achieve success by effectively diagnosing a decision situation, designing a clear approach, facilitating communication, and presenting compelling rationale to key stakeholders.
Modeling and Analytics for Strategic Insight
Create models that answer executives' questions, produce compelling analyses, and ultimately gain commitment.
Scenarios and Forecasting: Planning for Uncertainty
Improve strategic decision-making with enhanced forecasting methods and by leveraging scenarios to foster insight.
Resources
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Decision Quality: Strategic Decision Making Through Framing & Alternatives
Framing and finding alternatives are key links in the decision quality chain; necessary for determining if a decision is good or not. -
Decision Quality: Strategic Decision Making Through Information & Values
Decision quality is a strategic decision making process used to judge the quality of a decision at the time it is being made. -
Decision Making: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Why do seemingly good decisions sometimes turn out all wrong? Conventional thinking often confuses decisions with outcomes.